IT'S THREE A.M., AND THE PHONE IS RINGING.

We all remember Hillary Clinton's campaign advertisement in her primary contest with Barack Obama. It is 3 a.m. and the phone is ringing in the White House. There is an emergency brewing. "Who do you want to answer that phone?", asks Hillary. Someone who knows the world leaders and has been there (i.e. Hillary Clinton), or someone who does not (i.e. Barack Obama)?

Events are moving quickly in the West's nuclear stand off with Iran, and it is becoming more likely that the White House phone will soon be ringing. Iran's recently revealed second nuclear site facility and its weekend missile tests bring an Israeli military response much closer in time. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's tough and uncompromising speech at the United Nations with reference to Iran and the threat Iran poses not only to Israel but to the world, leaves no doubt where Israel stands. Should the up-coming October 1 talks between Iran and six global powers not produce real results, i.e. meaningful Iranian concessions or sanctions "that bite" (to use President Obama's own words), the timing of a military response, although there will never be a "good" time for such an action, could not be better from the Israeli perspective. The recent revelation of the new site, Iran's deception, and its missile launch tests, will likely bring Israel some global support in its desire to remove the Iranian nuclear threat.

So how will the phone call go? The caller will be Prime Minister Netanyahu, who will be informing President Obama that Israel is planning to launch military action against the Iranian nuclear sites in a few hours. American political support and possibly financial or military assistance will be sought. What will President Obama say?

It is my prediction that President Obama will support Israeli action. Why do I say this?

First, the President has been clear in his support for the State of Israel. He has never wavered in this, although there of course have been disagreements, for example over the continued settlement expansion.

Second, he has been firm in his resolve to prevent an Iran which has nuclear weapons. Once he determines that this cannot be accomplished through diplomatic routes, or through sanctions, which is his and everyone's preference, the military option is the only one left.

Third, I think President Obama is very tough minded. Although granted he has never been tested to the extent that he will be if the 3 a.m. telephone call comes, his resolve in dealing with other issues has been very strong. The bold economic moves which he pushed through including the bail outs and huge stimulus spending illustrates to me that when he thinks he is right, it is full steam ahead. He does not like to be embarrassed or undermined by others. When those, whether friends or not, become a political liability, they are gone. This has been true down from Jeremiah Wright to Van Jones, and most recently Governor David Patterson of New York. I recall the President's tone of voice when he was once questioned about Israeli self-defense actions against those firing rockets into Israel. He said something to the effect that if his two daughters were being threatened, he would take all necessary steps to protect them. There was a determination in his voice, one which told me that you do not fool with this guy. He is an iron fist in a velvet glove.

No-one wants the phone to ring at 3:00 am in the White House ever. But that is not the world in which we live. Let us see if I am right in predicting how President Obama will handle it.