Back To Canada's Political Soap Opera

Now that the interminable Obama transition and inauguration are thankfully over, Canadians can refocus their attention on our home grown political drama. It has been a while since our last episode, so let me refresh your memory. When we last tuned in, the "coalition of the unwilling", i.e. the three opposition parties unwilling to seek power through an election, was attempting to overthrow the minority government of Stephen Harper. Harper frustrated this plot, by convincing the Governor General to suspend Parliament before a non-confidence vote could be held. The three headed monster, which consists of a socialist, a centrist, and a separatist, lurked away, promising to come back even more strongly when Parliament re-opened in January.

Well January is here and Parliament is about to re-open. The minority government will be presenting its budget, and the vote will take place. What will happen? Will the coalition carry through with its threat to defeat the government? You will recall that it promised to do so, no matter what was in the budget. They had lost "trust" in Stephen Harper. Bob Rea as well as other prominent coalition members made this point crystal clear.

Things have changed. The centrist Liberals, which hold the key to this matter, since both the separatists and socialists will vote against the government, have a new leader, Michael Ignatieff. He has made it clear that Canadians need another election like "we need a hole in our heads". Ignatieff would love to become Prime Minister a.s.a.p, and if he could be convinced that the Governor General would hand over power to the coalition rather than call for an election, in the event of the defeat of the minority government, he would jump at this chance. He would then become one of the most undemocratically "elected" Prime Ministers in the history of this country, as he has yet to even be confirmed as leader by members of his own party. But no matter. It is uncertain what the Governor General would do if the minority government fell - call an election or let the coalition govern - and my guess is that Ignatieff will not risk an election at this point.

So next week, the government will not fall. Bets anyone?