As I watch the 24/7, wall to wall coverage, of the street protests coming out of Egypt, I frankly do not know what to think. Is this the "real deal", an event which will have profound lasting effects in Egypt and the Middle East, or a re-run of the Iranian protests of 2009? You will recall that "historic" event - endless television coverage and analysis, predictions of big change, but ultimately nothing. The protests ended, and the government remained intact, probably even more repressive than it was before. There was then in Iran as there is now in Egypt an emerging savior - Mir Hossein Mousavi in Iran, Mohamed ElBaradei in Egypt. There was then in Iran as there is now in Egypt, criticism of the Obama administration from progressives for its not doing more to support the protest and protesters. Not exactly "regime change" a la George Bush and Iraq, but not exactly staying out of it either.
Unlike the Iranian uprising however the Egyptian one is a lot more politicized in the West. No-one in the West liked Ahmadinejad and the Mullahs, so if they fell, a unanimous "good riddance". Whoever replaced them could not have been more hostile to the West as that regime was and is. The devil we know in Iran could in no way be better than the devil we do not know. In Egypt it is however different. There are many who are very concerned that if Mubarak falls, Western interests are in real jeopardy. Egypt is an important and "stable" (so we thought) American ally. There is obvious concern in Israel where an unstable Egypt, with Muslim Brotherhood as part of its government, cannot be good news. Other voices however are decidedly much more optimistic and even joyful at this turn of events. "Change in repressive societies is good" and "we should embrace instability" says Anne Appelbaum in Slate. That may be all well and good for Ms Appelbaum, who like me, lives thousands of miles from Egypt. I am not so sure that Egyptians who are currently guarding their homes from looters and protecting themselves from violence are embracing instability with such enthusiasm.
I do not know of course how this episode will end. Will it end with a whimper or will it be more meaningful and lasting? If meaningful, will it have a positive or negative meaning? Time I guess will tell.
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very good, maybe next time you might invest in an opinion
ReplyDeletelol... got you there, didn't he, Lewis...
ReplyDeleteAnonymous,
ReplyDeleteBe careful what you wish for. Sometimes the opinion you seek on unrest in the Middle East will be ill-considered blether. See http://lewisklar.blogspot.com/2009/06/iranians-give-their-answer.html#comments
Lew, I am with Anne on this. Its a great opportunity for Egypt and a learning moment about 'democracy' for us. Western democracies cozy up to a successor to the icon Sadat, a friend of the west and, oh, he's a petty dictator. I hope this is a Fall of The Wall moment for the Middle East and a moment for us to learn about social change. This seems all about Egyptians outraged about their failing state. However Mubarak supported the status-quo of Israel's siege on Gaza so I hope logjams start to break, in a good way.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous and Marnie - I must have missed the part where you boldly state your opinions. Thanks for sharing.
ReplyDeleteAs for Egypt, one thing Israel should consider - how long can it legitimately call itself "the only democracy in the middle east" if it explicitly or implicitly supports the existence of the dictatorships that surround it?
You can't suck and blow, my friends.
I agree with you, Red Sock. All of what you said.
ReplyDelete